12/19/2025

Solar activity has been at low levels with only a few C1 flares from
Region 4307. Slight growth and consolidation were observed in that
region as it neared the southwestern limb. Slight decay and
separation were observed in Region 4311. The rest of the spotted
regions were either stable or in decay. CME analysis will be
conducted as imagery becomes available. Solar activity is expected
to be low with a slight chance for M-class flares (R1-R2,
minor-moderate) December 18 to 20.
 
Solar wind parameters continued to be under the influence of a
negative polarity coronal hole high-speed stream (CH HSS). Solar
wind speed was mostly in the 550 to 650 km/s range. HSS influences
are expected to gradually diminish December 19 - 20.
 
Solar activity is expected to continue at low levels over December
19 to 21. There is a chance for R1/R2 (Minor-Moderate) events
through December 21. The solar wind environment is expected to
remain mildly enhanced over December 19 to 21 as negative polarity
CH HSS influences diminish.

Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's
Ionosphere, December 18, 2025, by F. K. Janda, OK1HH:

The occurrence of an extensive coronal hole in the western half of
the solar disk is consistent with the increased speed of the solar
wind, as measured by geostationary satellites. The edges of another
relatively large coronal hole in the east are likely to be the
source of the next period of enhanced solar wind during the coming
week.  However, overall solar activity is low, as reflected in the
low values of the critical frequencies of the F2 ionospheric layer.

The decline in geomagnetic activity in mid-December did, however,
have a positive effect on shortwave propagation conditions, albeit
mainly at lower frequencies. This included the occasional formation
of ionospheric waveguides.

Although solar activity is likely to increase next week, the
activity of the Earth's magnetic field is also likely to increase.
Therefore, unstable conditions can be expected in the Earth's
ionosphere, with short intervals of improvement followed by longer
intervals of deterioration in shortwave propagation conditions.

The current Solar Cycle Progression from the NOAA/Space Weather
Prediction Center can be found at, https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/solar-cycle-progression[1] .

The Predicted Planetary A Index for December 20 to 26 is 10, 5, 20,
20, 25, 20, and 20, with a mean of 17.1. Predicted Planetary K Index
is 3, 2, 5, 5, 5, 5, 5, with a mean of 4.2. 10.7-centimeter flux is
115, 115, 125, 135, 145, 155, 165, with a mean of 136.4.

For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation[2] and the ARRL Technical Information
Service web page at, http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[3]. For
an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[4] . Information and
tutorials on propagation can be found at, http://k9la.us/[5] .

Also, check this:

https://bit.ly/3Rc8Njt[6]

"Understanding Solar Indices" from September 2002 QST.
 


[1] https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/solar-cycle-progression
[2] http://www.arrl.org/propagation
[3] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
[4] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
[5] http://k9la.us/
[6] https://bit.ly/3Rc8Njt
---
■ Synchronet ■ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS

01/02/2026

The January 2, 2026, report from Spaceweather.com[1] has updated
details about the Coronal Mass Ejections predicted to hit the Earth
on January 3 and 4.

Solar wind parameters are expected to be disturbed through January
4, 2026, due to a combination of Coronal Hole High Speed Stream and
Coronal Mass Ejection activity. There is the potential for glancing
influences late into January 3 from CMEs that left the Sun on
December 28 to 30. Additional enhancements are possible again on
January 4 with the possible indirect impact of the CME that left the
Sun on January 2.

By early January 3 the arrival of the December 31 is expected to
cause unsettled to G1-G2 (Minor-Moderate) storming. Additional
geomagnetic storming is anticipated on January 4 with the possible
impact of the January 2 CME.

Solar activity is expected to be predominately low through January
24, with C-class flares expected throughout the outlook period.
M-class flares (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) range from a chance to likely
at times as active regions evolve and rotate on/off the disk.
X-class flares (R3-Strong or greater) range from a slight chance to
a chance during periods of enhanced active region complexity.

Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's
Ionosphere, January 1, 2026, by F. K. Janda, OK1HH:

"In mid-December 2025, we observed a relatively significant decline
in solar activity within the approximately 27-day fluctuation caused
by the rotation of the Sun. It seemed that the maximum of the
eleven-year cycle would end after a period of high activity in
2024-2025. However, a significant increase in solar activity in the
second half of December suggests the opposite-solar activity will
probably remain relatively high in 2026!

"Based on increased flare activity, accompanied by coronal mass
ejections (CMEs) in the last days of 2025, geomagnetic disturbances
can be predicted in the first days of 2026. Their probability should
increase since January 1 (G1 level) until January 3 (when G2 level
can be expected). Calm days should follow since January 5.

"In the current eleven-year cycle, we have become accustomed to the
fact that the parameters of the ionosphere differ from those
measured in previous cycles at the same level of solar activity. For
example, the critical frequencies of the F2 ionospheric layer are
significantly lower. This will probably also apply to the rest of
the cycle. Even so, the forecast of a slower decline in solar
activity is favorable for the shortwave propagation."

Region 4330 was responsible for two eruptions seen in SUVI imagery.
The first was associated with a coronal mass ejection (CME), first
observed in coronagraph imagery December 30, 2025, and was closely
followed by a second CME from the northeast quadrant, potentially
from near Region 4324. None of their modeled trajectory indicated
direct impact near Earth. Further coronagraph images are necessary
to evaluate whether the second eruption from Region 4330 will result
in a visible CME. No other Earth-directed CME was observed during
the period.
 
Solar activity is likely to be moderate with a chance for X-class
flares through January 2, 2026, due to the current magnetic
complexity and development of the active regions on the visible
solar disk.
 
Periods of active conditions are likely on January 9 and 10 and on
January 12 to 14 due to negative polarity CH HSS influences. 

The latest solar report from Dr. Tamitha Skov, WX6SWW, can be found
on YouTube at:
https://youtu.be/jmeefUKgN6o?si=_cHekumd2JskrU_F[2] .

The Predicted Planetary A Index for January 3, 2026 to January 9 is
15, 12, 5, 5, 5, 5, and 15, with a mean of 8.9  Predicted Planetary
K Index is 4, 4, 2, 2, 2, 2, and 4, with a mean of 2.9.
10.7-centimeter flux is 160, 155, 150, 155, 140, 130, and 125, with a
mean of 145.

For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation[3] and the ARRL Technical Information
Service web page at, http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[4]. For
an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[5] . Information and
tutorials on propagation can be found at, http://k9la.us/[6] .

Also, check this:

https://bit.ly/3Rc8Njt[7]

"Understanding Solar Indices" from September 2002 QST.
 


[1] http://Spaceweather.com
[2] https://youtu.be/jmeefUKgN6o?si=_cHekumd2JskrU_F
[3] http://www.arrl.org/propagation
[4] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
[5] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
[6] http:
[7] https://bit.ly/3Rc8Njt
---
■ Synchronet ■ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS

01/09/2026

Geomagnetic field activity is likely to reach G1 (Minor) geomagnetic
storm levels on January 13 and 14, and then from January 17 to 20.

Unsettled levels are likely on January 12, and then from January 21
and 22.  All enhancements in geomagnetic activity are due to the
anticipated influence of multiple, recurrent, coronal holes. The
remainder of the outlook period is expected to be mostly quiet.

A tracking model from NOAA/SWPC shows a Coronal Mass Ejection (CME)
could pass close to Earth by January 11.  Multiple faint coronal
mass ejections were observed off the SE limb originating from Region
4334. However, modeling appeared to show no Earth-directed
component.
 
Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance (45 percent) for
M-class flares (R1-R2, minor-moderate), and a slight chance (10
percent) for isolated X-class flares (R3-strong) until January 10.
 
Solar wind parameters became mildly enhanced after January 7.
However, Coronal Hole High Speed Stream (CH HSS) influence is
expected to persist through January 10.

Unsettled to active conditions are expected to continue on January
10 and 11 as the coronal hole moves further into a geo-effective
position, along with the possible arrival of CMEs that left the Sun
on January 8, with a chance for isolated G1 (Minor) storm conditions
late on January 10.
 
Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's
Ionosphere, January 8, 2026, by F. K. Janda, OK1HH:

"According to the original forecast, solar activity was expected to
gradually decline until mid-January. However, an active region,
AR4336, emerged in the southeast of the solar disk, in a location
where nothing unusual had occurred during the previous solar
rotation. As a result, overall solar activity is already beginning
to increase.

"Other formations important for the forecast are coronal holes No.
12 and 13, whose proximity to active regions will cause an
intensification of the solar wind. Its effects will be felt in the
Earth's magnetosphere and ionosphere since January 9, when the
shorter disturbance is expected. This will be followed by a brief
lull and a renewed increase in geomagnetic activity before
mid-January.

"The forecast for the coming days is very uncertain. If the
situation from the last solar rotation repeats itself, solar
activity could continue to increase since mid-January, while the
days of January 15-18 could be geomagnetically active or even
disturbed. However, it seems that a reliable forecast cannot be made
at this time."

The Predicted Planetary A Index for January 10 to 16 is 8, 5, 10,
15, 15, 5, and 5, with a mean of 9.  Predicted Planetary K Index is
3, 2, 3, 5, 5, 2, and 2, with a mean of 3.1.  10.7-centimeter flux
is 135, 130, 135, 135, 140, 145, and 145, with a mean of 137.9.

For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation[1] and the ARRL Technical Information
Service web page at, http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[2]. For
an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[3] . Information and
tutorials on propagation can be found at, http://k9la.us/[4] .

Also, check this:

https://bit.ly/3Rc8Njt[5]

"Understanding Solar Indices" from September 2002 QST.

 


[1] http://www.arrl.org/propagation
[2] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
[3] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
[4] http://k9la.us/
[5] https://bit.ly/3Rc8Njt
---
■ Synchronet ■ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS

01/16/2026

Solar activity reached moderate levels due to an M1.6 flare on
January 14 from new region AR4341. Spot classification of this
region is complicated by limb proximity and foreshortening effects.
New Region AR4342 rotated around the NE limb and was also numbered.
No Earth-directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) were observed. Solar
activity is expected to be low with a 25-30% chance for M-class
flares (R1-R2, minor-moderate) to January 17.
 
Solar wind parameters were elevated under continued negative
polarity coronal hole high speed stream (CH HSS) influences. Solar
wind speed ranged mostly between 450-570 km/s.
 
Another enhancement in the solar wind is expected early on January
17 when a current, positive polarity, CH HSS is expected to become geoeffective. Solar wind speed is likely to exceed 700 km/s based on
recurrent data.

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit is
expected to reach high levels on January 21 to 27, and then on
January 30 and 31st due to the anticipated influence of multiple,
recurrent coronal holes. The remainder of the outlook period is
likely to be at normal to moderate levels.

Geomagnetic field activity is likely to reach G1 (Minor) geomagnetic
storm levels on January 29, unsettled to active levels on January 19
to 23, and then on 27 and 28. All enhancements in geomagnetic
activity are due to the anticipated influence of multiple, recurrent
Coronal Hole High Speed Streams.  The remainder of the outlook
period is expected to mostly quiet.
 
Weekly Commentary on the Sun, the Magnetosphere, and the Earth's
Ionosphere, January 15, 2026, by F. K. Janda, OK1HH:

"Within the 27-day fluctuation, as expected, the solar radio noise
power flux curve on the wavelength of 10.7 cm passed through a
minimum of 111 s.f.u. on January 11. Whereupon began to rise slowly.
The rise will continue, mainly due to new activity around the
southeastern limb of the solar disk, where the currently largest
active region, AR4341, has emerged. Even before its emergence, it
made itself known with M-class solar flares accompanied by CMEs.

"Other significant formations on the Sun include three coronal
holes. The second largest is now located on the northwest part of
the solar disk. The solar wind blowing from its edges is likely to
cause a shorter increase in geomagnetic activity on January 17.
Significantly stronger disturbances can be expected about a week
later, when the large coronal hole will move from the southeast of
the solar disk to the central meridian. This will happen
simultaneously with AR4341, causing a significant increase in solar
flux-and also geomagnetic activity."

The Predicted Planetary A Index for January 17 to 23 is 5, 5, 18,
15, 12, 8, and 6, with a mean of 9.9.  Predicted Planetary K Index
is 2, 2, 4, 4, 4, 3, and 2, with a mean of 3.  10.7-centimeter flux
is 106, 106, 110, 115, 125, 135, and 140, with a mean of 119.6.

For more information concerning shortwave radio propagation, see http://www.arrl.org/propagation[1] and the ARRL Technical Information
Service web page at, http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals[2]. For
an explanation of numbers used in this bulletin, see http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere[3] . Information and
tutorials on propagation can be found at, http://k9la.us/[4] .

Also, check this:

https://bit.ly/3Rc8Njt[5]

"Understanding Solar Indices" from September 2002 QST.

 


[1] http://www.arrl.org/propagation
[2] http://arrl.org/propagation-of-rf-signals
[3] http://arrl.org/the-sun-the-earth-the-ionosphere
[4] http://k9la.us/
[5] https://bit.ly/3Rc8Njt
---
■ Synchronet ■ Whiskey Lover's Amateur Radio BBS